Nigeria Eyes $10B Oil Revenue Boost by Year-End Amid Global Price Surge

 

The Federal Government of Nigeria has set an ambitious target to generate over $10 billion in crude oil revenue by the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by rising global oil prices and efforts to ramp up production output across key oil fields.

The announcement was made by the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Heineken Lokpobiri, during a stakeholders’ meeting in Abuja. Lokpobiri stated that Nigeria is now producing 1.6 million barrels per day, a significant rebound from earlier lows in 2023 caused by theft, sabotage, and operational inefficiencies.

“We are back on track,” the minister said. “If this momentum continues, we will not only meet but exceed the $10 billion target by Q4.”

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The projected earnings are expected to come from a mix of improved security in the Niger Delta, renewed investor confidence, and the stabilization of the naira through increased foreign exchange inflows from oil exports.

Analysts say Nigeria’s goal is realistic given that Brent crude is currently trading above $88 per barrel, and with OPEC maintaining tight supply lines, oil producing nations are in a position to reap significant revenue if they can keep production steady.

“The global market is in our favor. This is Nigeria’s window of opportunity,” said Professor Uche Amadi, an energy economist at UNILAG. “But it requires consistent output, export transparency, and infrastructure reliability.”

The government also confirmed that several international oil companies (IOCs), including Shell, Chevron, and TotalEnergies, have restarted dormant fields and resumed full operations in the Niger Delta after a series of agreements to curb oil theft and pipeline vandalism.

In addition, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) is working on fast-tracking approvals for new marginal field operators, which could add another 300,000 barrels per day by early 2026.

However, civil society groups are warning that past windfalls have not translated into real development. They are calling on the government to ensure transparency and accountability in how oil revenues are used.

“If this $10 billion ends up in the usual corruption pipeline, then it’s just numbers on paper,” said Kolade Olayinka of the Public Finance Watch Initiative. “Let’s invest it in health, education, and power not political campaigns.”

The presidency says a portion of the anticipated oil revenue will be dedicated to clearing outstanding debts in the energy sector, funding capital projects, and stabilizing the naira through strategic injections into the Central Bank’s reserve base.

If successful, this could mark a financial turning point for Africa’s largest economy one still grappling with inflation, unemployment, and infrastructure decay.

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